Open Password – Mittwoch, den 9. März 2022

# 1039

Outsell – Global Library Information Market – Kate Worlock – Trends Driving Change – Forecasts – Information Industry Database (Outsell) – Information Management Benchmark (Outsell) – Publicly Available Data – Corporate Libraries – Academic Libraries – School Libraries – Public Libraries – Government Libraries – Healthcare-related Libraries – Rising Prices – Pandemic-related Challenges – Senior Staff Retiring – Expertise Gaps – Training and Development – Digital Dominates – Print – Remote Learning – Information for Vaccines – Open Access – Disintermediation of Research – Changes of IP and Copyright Laws – Mobile Devices – AI – Machine Learning – Digitisation Journeys – Information Management Function – Pharmaceutical Industry – Market Size and Forecast – Global Library Market – Emergency Funding – Price Freeces – Global Spending by Library Type – Global Content Spending by Library Type – Yearly Growth in Content Spending by Library Type – Long-term Relationships

Ukraine – Science for Ukraine – Support für Students and Researchers – Bürger und Recht – Allensbach – Legal Tech – Sven Gelbke – Justizsystem – Diplomatic Council – Roboter im Alltag – Digitale Ethik – Andreas Dripke – Saugroboter – Roboterhunde – Humanoide – Astro – Amazon – Tesla Bot – Elon Musk – Boston Dynamics – Spot – Polizei und Sicherheitsfirmen – Französische Armee – Vereinte Nationen – Killerroboter – Leasing- und Abonnement-Modelle

1. Science for Ukraine

1. Titel: Global Library Information Market:

Forecast and Trends – By Kate Worlock

III. Bürger und Recht:
Junge Menschen finden Legal Tech mehrheitlich gut – Mit dem Justizsystem unzufrieden

1. Diplomatic Council
   Roboter erobern den Alltag und müssen Gegenstand einer digitalen Ethik werden

#Science for Ukraine is a voluntary initiative whose mission is to support students and researchers from Ukraine.

Outsell´s March Contribution*

Global Library Information Market:

Forecast and Trends

Part I

 

By Kate Worlock – VP & Lead Analyst

Kate Worlock

_____________________________________________________

Why This Segment

_____________________________________________________

This report sizes and segments the content spending of the $31.6 billion global library market and analyses the trends driving change. It forecasts spending through 2022 and acts as a tool for information providers who target the library market and must understand its regional and vertical dynamics.

_____________________________________________________

Market Definition and Methodology

_____________________________________________________

Outsell scans available data on libraries worldwide and indicators of how much they
spend on information. We then evaluate that data to build our market models and use
estimates to fill in any gaps.

Outsell bases the estimates of change in each market segment on an analysis of library spending patterns from Outsell’s Information Industry Database, data from our annual Information Management Benchmark (IMB) studies that capture spending data from libraries, and input from Outsell analysts who report on the library sector. This benchmark and spending data spans nearly 20 years of research.

The current update incorporates data from the benchmark survey completed in
November 2021, which included questions on current and future spending by libraries across content types. A total of 62 information managers responded to the survey.

Outsell also collates publicly available data on the library market from a wide range of
third parties, including the following organizations:

• American Library Association (ALA)
  • American Library Directory (published by Information Today, Inc.)
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics
  • CILIP (UK)
  • Council of Australian University Librarians
  • Council of Ministers of Education Canada
  • Encyclopedia of Library and Information Sciences (published by Taylor &
  Francis)
  • European Parliament
  • German Library Statistics
  • Instituto Nacional de Estadística (Spain)
  • International Federation of Library Associations (IFLA)
  • Libraries Canada (published by Grey House Publishing Canada)
  • National Bureau of Statistics of China
  • National Center for Education Statistics (US)
  • National Mission of Libraries (India)
  • Rossiskaya Natsionalnaya Biblioteka (Russia)
  • UNESCO Institute for Statistics
  • UniRank
  • World Guide to Libraries (published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH)

Outsell’s analysis considers the following types of libraries:

• Corporate Libraries: These libraries exclusively serve their parent organizations
  and cover a wide range of industry verticals, including pharmaceuticals,
  automotive and aerospace, finance and insurance, chemicals, food and
  beverages, and legal.
  • Academic Libraries: The third-largest segment in terms of the number of
  individual locations, academic libraries include those at all higher education
  institutions, such as colleges, universities, community colleges, trade schools,
  and professional schools.
  • School Libraries: Libraries in elementary and secondary (K-12) educational
  institutions. These are by far the most numerous — there are over a million
  school libraries worldwide.
  • Public Libraries: Second to school libraries in number, public libraries —
  including national libraries — exist in some form in almost every country. Public
  libraries fulfil the widest array of missions and support the greatest diversity of
  users of any library type. Outsell’s figures for public libraries represent library
  systems or main libraries, not individual branch libraries, since these libraries’
  budgets are governed at the system level.
  • Government Libraries: This sector includes governments at all levels and
  serves both end-users within government roles and members of the public.
  • Other Special Libraries: For this report, we have focused primarily on
  healthcare-related libraries, including those in hospitals, research institutes, and
  medical practices, unless otherwise indicated. This includes nonprofits such as
  cultural organizations, associations, and religious organizations.

_____________________________________________________

Market Drivers and Inhibitors

_____________________________________________________

End-user shifts, technological developments, and funding pressures continue to impact libraries in all segments, with different factors at play in individual segments. Outsell analysis points to the following segment dynamics.

Budget Challenges Have Eased, But Likely Temporarily.

Respondents to Outsell’s 2021 IMB survey expected that their budgets would rise by
3.1% in 2022. This suggests that while budgets are tight, there are signs of future
growth. These budget increases will not only help information managers develop their
digital collections and services but also mean that information providers might be able to raise prices slightly. This is an important growth driver for vendors, particularly since many organisations held prices flat in 2020 as a nod to the pandemic-related challenges buyers faced.

However, there is a danger that this budget growth picture is temporary. Emergency
government funding for public, academic, and K-12 libraries was intended to enable
these facilities to support patrons remotely during the pandemic. While this remote
support will continue, this funding, by virtue of its emergency nature, will not be
available for the long term.

Danger of Skills Shortages

Outsell’s IMB survey found that library spending on content rose as a proportion of total spend, with spending on personnel (both FTEs and outsourced personnel) taking the brunt of this change. Budget allocated to personnel fell from 37% in 2018 to 34% in 2020 and to 29% in 2021. Anecdotally, this has taken place through senior staff retiring and not being replaced, suggesting a decline in sector expertise. Remaining library staff are likely to require support from providers to fill these expertise gaps.

This decline in sector expertise is reflected in the finding that 35% of IMB respondents in 2021 saw a need for additional funding for training and development. Modernizing library technology systems and software tools drives the need for training to boost the skills of IM staff members to manage these new systems and tools.

Digital Dominates.

Most library spending goes to digital resources, according to the IMB survey, with print accounting for around 10%. Spending on bundled resources is minimal, which is
understandable given the challenges with facilitating user access to a combined
analogue/digital resource.

Outsell does not expect this picture to change in 2022, suggesting that the market has achieved a print plateau of around 10%. This ensures that the library can serve in-person needs where necessary but that the bulk of its spending is focused on ensuring the supply of digital resources to both in-person and remote users.

In terms of format popularity, spending on online databases of text-based content from single providers took up 40% of this year’s budget, on average, with librarians
supplementing gaps by investing in the category of individual articles and document
delivery, one of the areas to see a jump in forecast spending. This trend suggests that libraries are having to reorient their budgets in this direction to make up for any gaps in database content in combination with a shortage of personnel expertise to help users find exactly what they’re looking for. Ensuring that business models align with this expected change will mean that vendors can take advantage of this upcoming shift.

Understandable Short-Term Focus

Libraries have always looked to align with the interests, needs, characteristics, and
pressures of the home institution. In academic libraries, this means supporting
discoverability for researchers and an increasing focus on the digital needs of students.This is particularly the case in the US, where falling student enrolment is driving institutions to look for a range of ways to attract and retain students. When it comes to online learning, the library is involved not just in the provision of resources but in making remote learning a rich and fulfilling experience. Meanwhile, public libraries are concerned with the digital divide and providing access to critical information on topics such as vaccines.

This short-term focus is also reflected in the trends that librarians felt would most
strongly impact the IM function. Open access, the disintermediation of research, and
changes to IP and copyright laws were of greatest concern, while respondents were
less worried about the impact of social media, pirate sites, and the growth in non-
traditional or alt-data products. This shows a change from 2020, when respondents
were most concerned about the growth in data products: this came in fourth place this year, alongside increased amounts of video content, demographic changes, and growth in demand for virtual work practices.

As with the question about technology, this suggests that information managers remain largely concerned with traditional issues, with many not looking beyond these traditional borders to see how their roles might change. The concerns of the day job appear to still take precedence over future-gazing, even though 55% of respondents indicated that they have reorganized their functions to accommodate new institutional requirements and the need for new roles and skills.

High Technology Expectations.

Information management leaders are well versed in new technologies, although there is a continual need to keep ahead of the game. For example, they must examine
technologies such as blockchain that present numerous possibilities related to digital
information management and intellectual property protection.

Outsell’s IMB survey asked respondents to rank a set of technologies in terms of the
impact they were likely to have on information services. While the data is directional
here, it does reflect a similar pattern to 2020: most respondents did not feel that
blockchain technologies would have a significant impact, while just 27% felt that their
services would be impacted by virtual and augmented reality. The technology most
expected to have an impact was mobile devices, followed by AI and machine learning. Again, this shows little change from 2020.

We also asked respondents about their digital progress. On average, respondents
reported that they were 75% of the way along their digitisation journeys. These results are disappointing: they suggest that the information management function is lagging the institutions and enterprises it serves. This is also surprising given the large group of respondents from the pharmaceutical industry — which is making massive strides in the use of technologies to develop new drugs — and the critical nature of the IM function in supporting the research that drives these developments.

Vendors clearly have some work ahead to support information managers as they try to balance the conflicting demands of budget — particularly, spending on personnel — against investments in technology. There are already solutions in the market using AI very effectively to serve this community. To ensure that IM professionals have a clear idea of technology’s benefits and limitations, the vendors of these solutions must raise their voices to increase the profiles of their offerings.

____________________________________________________

Market Size and Forecast

____________________________________________________

In 2021, libraries spent $31.6 billion on content worldwide. Outsell forecasts that the
market will grow by 3.1% this year, reaching $32.4 billion. Table 1 shows Outsell’s
estimates for global library spend.

Table 1: Global Library Market, 2017-22

Sources: Outsell Information Management Benchmark Survey, Outsell market sizing data, World Bank

While library budgets remain under pressure, the impact of the pandemic was not
disastrous. Just over a third of respondents to Outsell’s November 2021 Information
Management Benchmarking (IMB) survey claimed that they had seen no budgetary
impact, and there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that some libraries were able to
access emergency funding to support the development of their digital archives and
resources to facilitate remote access for patrons when physical libraries were closed.
Thus, while budgets remain an area of critical concern, they are at least not on the
decline. However, given that vendor prices are likely to rise — particularly since many
vendors implemented price freezes during the pandemic to show support for their
customers — this merely means that IM’s spending power is flat, not up.

Figure 1: Global Content Spending by Library Type, 2021-2022 ($billions)

Source: Outsell, Inc.

Overall, Outsell forecasts a CAGR of 1.8% in content spending across all library types and geographic regions for the period from 2017 to 2022. Spending in all segments shows growth in the low-single-figure range, and close to flat for public, K-12, and government libraries. However, this five-year CAGR of 1.8% is higher than the 1.5% for 2013-17, likely highlighting the impact of emergency funding allocated to libraries in 2020-21 to help them further develop their digital resources to serve patrons remotely during the pandemic.

Figure 2 shows the growth in content spend by different types of libraries over the 2017-22 period. School libraries are the largest segment, accounting for approximately 37% of the library market but with relatively low spending per library. Academic, public, and corporate libraries each comprise 15-20% of the market, with academic libraries at the top of that range. Government libraries account for just 4% of library content spending.

Figure 2: Global Content Spending CGR by Library Type, 2017 – 22

Source: Outsell, Inc.

The overall picture shown in Figure 2 is driven by annual activity that differs significantly from year to year, shown in Table 2, largely because of the pandemic. All library types saw budget growth in 2021 compared to 2020, often due to government-sourced recovery funding. School library budgets generally track GDP but saw a pandemic-driven funding boost while, conversely, growth in corporate library budgets is generally above GDP but fell in 2020 due to the economic slowdown. The outlier within this subgroup was libraries serving pharmaceutical companies involved in vaccine development, where investment in content resources was critical.

Table 2: Yearly Growth in Content Spending by Library Type, 2018-22

Source: Outsell, Inc.

See also Part II: Further Forecasts – Essential Actions for Information Management Professionals and Vendors

Bürger und Recht

Junge Menschen finden Legal Tech
mehrheitlich gut
Mit dem Justizsystem unzufrieden

(Allensbach) Eine aktuelle und repräsentative Untersuchung des Allensbach Instituts zeigt, dass junge Menschen in Deutschland ihre rechtlichen Angelegenheiten ohne anwaltlichen Rat selbst im Internet erledigen wollen. Von den 16- bis 29-Jährigen finden es 56 Prozent grundsätzlich gut, wenn sie Rechtsprobleme am Computer mit Hilfe von Legal Tech Angeboten statt mit einem Anwalt lösen können, von den 30- bis 44-Jährigen sogar 59 Prozent.

„Das Ergebnis der Befragung bestätigt unsere tägliche Erfahrung als Legal Tech Unternehmen“, sagt Dr. Sven Gelbke, der über die Website www.dieerbschützer.de übergangenen Erben dabei hilft, ihr Pflichtteil zu bekommen. „Wir arbeiten auf reiner Erfolgsbasis. Von dem Betrag, den wir für übergangene Erben erstreiten, erhalten wir 14 Prozent. Das ist fair und für unsere Kunden leicht kalkulierbar und risikofrei.“, so Gelbke.

Was die Allensbach-Studie auch hervorbrachte: Die Bürger sind sehr unzufrieden mit der Justiz. 81 Prozent kritisieren, dass viele Verfahren in Deutschland zu lange dauern – 75 Prozent halten die Gerichte sogar für überlastet. „Was noch schwerer wiegt, ist die Tatsache, dass laut Allensbach-Studie ein Großteil der Bevölkerung Zweifel an der Gleichbehandlung vor Gericht hegt. So vertreten 59 Prozent die Ansicht, dass man mit einem bekannten Anwalt seine Chancen auf ein günstiges Urteil erhöhen kann“, berichtet Gelbke, der mit seinem Legal Tech Angebot auch dazu beitragen möchte, dass Recht bekommen keine Frage des Geldes ist.

Diplomatic Council

Roboter erobern den Alltag und müssen
Gegenstand einer digitalen Ethik werden

„Roboter im Alltag – Maschinen (beinahe) wie Menschen“, Andreas Dripke, 176 Seiten, ISBN 978-3-947818-71-6

Roboter werden künftig in unserem Alltag so selbstverständlich werden, wie wir heute unser Smartphone nutzen. So lautet die These des neuen Buches „Roboter im Alltag – Maschinen (beinahe) wie Menschen“, das im Verlag der UNO-Denkfabrik Diplomatic Council erschienen ist (ISBN 978-3-947818-71-6). Der Autor Andreas Dripke sagt: „Kaum jemand kann sich heute ein Leben ohne Smartphone vorstellen – bei Robotern wird es künftig genauso sein.“

Im Buch wird ein weiter Bogen geschlagen von Saugrobotern, die heute schon in vielen Haushalten für Sauberkeit sorgen, über Roboterhunde, wie sie beispielsweise beim jüngsten Großbrand in Essen zur Gebäudeinspektion zum Einsatz kamen, bis hin zu Humanoiden, also Robotern, die Menschen nachempfunden sind. Die Prognose: Ab 2026 sollen Haushaltsroboter allmählich in das Smart Home Einzug halten. Als erster Vorläufer gilt der Heimroboter Astro von Amazon, der wie ein Saugroboter mit aufmontiertem Bildschirm und ausfahrbarer Teleskopkamera aussieht. Der vorläufig nur in den USA erhältliche Home Robot zielt mit einem Preis von 1.500 Dollar auf den Verbrauchermarkt. Als weiteren Indikator für den aufziehenden Markt der Heimroboter wird die Vorankündigung des Tesla Bot durch Elon Musk gewertet. In dem Buch wird zudem die Erwartung geäußert, dass Samsung, Xiaomi und letztendlich auch Apple in einigen Jahren in den Markt der Alltagsroboter einsteigen werden.

Wie weit fortgeschritten die Entwicklung der Humanoiden bereits ist, verdeutlicht nach Ansicht des Autors am besten das jüngste Modell Atlas von Boston Dynamics. Dazu heißt es im Buch:

„Der humanoide Roboter vollführt Sprünge, Kurven- und Treppenläufe sowie Salto mortale. Wenn er gelegentlich stolpert, fängt er sich wieder und läuft weiter – genau wie ein Mensch sich in der Regel verhalten würde. Die Bewegungen wirken fließend, flexibel und schnell, beinahe schon wie ein Balletttänzer. Wer Atlas 2021 beim Parcourslauf gesehen hat, konnte erkennen, wie nah wir uns schon am Eindringen der Humanoiden in unseren Alltag befinden.“

Eine kurzfristig größere Verbreitung sagt der Autor dem ebenfalls von Boston Dynamics entwickelten Roboterhund Spot voraus. Polizei und Sicherheitsfirmen setzen den mechanischen Vierbeiner immer häufiger als ferngesteuerten Wachhund oder als Vorhut bei unklarer Sicherheitslage ein. Testeinsätze des Robohundes bei der französischen Armee zeigten allerdings auch die „dunkle Seite“ der neuen Robotertechnik auf. Dabei werden auch die – bisher vergeblichen – Bemühungen der Vereinten Nationen erörtert, autonome Waffen, also „Killerroboter“, verbieten zu lassen.

Dripke mahnt die Entwicklung einer digitalen Ethik an, um Auswüchse und Grenzsituationen bei KI-gesteuerten Maschinen zu verhindern bzw. beherrschbar zu machen. Im Buch wird an die „Robotergesetze“ des Science-Fiction-Schriftstellers Isaac Asimov erinnert:

„Erstens: Ein Roboter darf kein menschliches Wesen verletzen oder durch Untätigkeit zulassen, dass einem menschlichen Wesen Schaden zugefügt wird. Zweitens: Ein Roboter muss den ihm von einem Menschen gegebenen Befehlen gehorchen – es sei denn, ein solcher Befehl würde mit Regel eins kollidieren. Drittens: Ein Roboter muss seine Existenz beschützen, solange dieser Schutz nicht mit Regel eins oder zwei kollidiert.“

Bevor Roboter unseren Alltag, so stark wie heute das Smartphone, dominieren werden, dürften allerdings noch ein paar Jahre vergehen. Im Buch ist von einem Zeithorizont jenseits des Jahres 2030 die Rede. Anspruchsvolle Humanoide dürften dann für etwa 20.000 Dollar zu haben sein, prognostiziert Dripke. Er schätzt, dass vor allem Leasing- oder Abomodelle dem breitflächigen Einsatz der künstlichen Haushaltsgehilfen den Weg ebnen werden.

Bei autonomen Fahrzeugen werde die Dringlichkeit einer digitalen Ethik besonders deutlich:

„Wenn der Wagen erkennt, dass er einem plötzlichen Hindernis in der Straßenmitte nicht mehr ausweichen kann, soll er nach links ausweichen in die Menschenmenge mit fünf Personen oder nach rechts in eine vierköpfige Familie? Oder in das Hindernis hineinrasen und somit „nur“ die, sagen wir, zwei Insassen opfern? Nach heutiger Sach- und Rechtslage würde der Autohersteller selbst festlegen, wie seine Software, die den Wagen steuert, mit diesem Dilemma umgeht. Wollen wir das?“

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